Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Captain Obvious does a study

Here's the newsflash: When confronted with an expert's advice, people don't think for themselves.

Wait a minute! There's absolutely nothing valuable about that conclusion. The study in question suggests that people shouldn't simply follow the advice of 'experts,' but think for themselves. Honestly, I have enough other things to think about--I can't be an expert on everything.

I got into trouble with an atheist blogger because I likened one's 'belief' in the value of expert science (in situations where you are not an expert) to a type of faith. Since I don't know the science, I have to have faith that those who do, really do know what the flop they're talking about. Like the engineering behind that bridge I'm about to cross. I don't know the science that led to the final design, but I really have to trust that the engineer who designed it knew what he was doing. That was his job: to know the science behind the strength of concrete and steel, and how to calculate forces appropriately (I once took mechanics in college, but the TA had such a horrible accent I don't think I learned anything other than 'bim' means 'beam'). My job is to know how to design and build enterprise computer systems. It's non-trivial, though cars don't fall in the river if I'm wrong.

But I digress.

The blogger who argued with me insisted that since she could pursue the science and understand it, she didn't have to take it all on faith. I suppose it was an artifact of her deconversion that caused such an aversion to my use of the 'faith' term, because even though I understand science and the scientific method, I don't understand most of the stuff necessary to actually render a scientifically meaningful decision on anything. Instead, I tell myself the experts know. I choose to believe them. Yes, it's to my peril if they're wrong. But what are my alternatives?

The most interesting part of the blog post I cite is a comment that happens to be a quote from Kant. To paraphrase: Thinking is hard. People would rather not do it, and if they avoid doing it long enough the lose the ability to think, altogether. It's easier to let someone else tell us what to do. YMMV.

That the study discussed financial experts seems almost beside the point. It's not irrelevant, but whenever someone is giving you advice, particularly if the advice 1) sounds too good to be true, 2) portents dire consequences if you fail to act, or 3) doesn't seem to make sense on the surface, run like hell.

Captain Obvious would tell you that everyone is trying to sell you something, so the only questions you have to answer are: who wins, and who loses. And if you're smart, you have to answer those questions.

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